Does NEAR Intents' cross-chain volume accrue value to the NEAR token?

The value-capture chain, last 30 days

Each arrow is a leak: of every $1 of Intents volume, how much becomes fees, how much NEAR captures, and how much buys $NEAR.

Weekly Intents volume vs NEAR price

Bars: weekly swap volume (left axis). Line: NEAR price at week end (right axis). Dashed line: buyback program starts 2026-02-23.

Weekly fees, captured revenue and $NEAR buyback

Fees = protocol + frontend affiliate fees. Revenue = NEAR/wNEAR swept into NEAR revenue wallets. Buyback = revenue spent buying $NEAR since 2026-02-23 (DefiLlama "holders revenue").

Does volume move price? Weekly log-change correlation

Correlation of weekly log change in Intents volume with NEAR's weekly log return, at lags of -4..+4 weeks (positive lag = volume leads price). Raw, not market-adjusted: see the next card.

Robustness: does the link survive a BTC/ETH market control?

Buybacks vs new supply, and what the market pays for buybacks elsewhere

Issuance is an upper bound: max annual rate × total supply × today's price. Bought-back NEAR is held, not burned. Comparables: market cap ÷ annualized 30-day holders revenue (buybacks), computed live from DefiLlama.

Bear / base / bull: how much of NEAR's market cap can Intents buybacks justify?

Edit any cell; the results recompute. Defaults come from model/assumptions.yaml. Baseline from data:

Caveats

Data provenance

Raw responses are committed in data/raw/ with SHA-256 hashes; python -m pipeline build reproduces every number here offline.